How Long To Super Intelligent AI?
Given the resources being poured into research and a driving desire to be the first to have access to the genie of super intelligent AI, I believe it could happen quite soon. As early as 2 to 5 years according to ControlAI's Samuel Buteau[1]. In "The AI Doc" movie, Tristan Harris said "Let's be honest. I know people who work on AI risk who don't expect their children to make it to High School."[2] Depending on when those children were born, not much longer than 2 to 5 years.
I'm working with Claude.ai to review existing instances of something like the Drake equation for AI and to create a blog post about it. The Drake equation is an effort by Astronomer and Astrophysicist, Dr. Frank Drake, to be able to come up with a realistic estimate of the chances that there is intelligent life in the Milky Way Galaxy. With over 100 billion stars in the Milky Way, knowing the odds that there is intelligent life in other solar systems is very likely to let us know whether it's probable. Once science has the answers to all the variables in the equation, they'll have a pretty decent chance of knowing the chances of other intelligent life in our galaxy.
My hope is that, by determining and looking at the relevant variables between current technology and the realization of super intelligent AI, I may be able to summarize the work already out there with an estimate based on real data, not conjecture. Determining the relevant variables and obtaining answers always involves some level of subjectivity. Still, it would be nice to have some rough idea.
Although I haven't completed that article yet, again, with all the money, material, human, and computing resources being poured into AI and the race to be first, it seems like could be very soon.
We're not prepared for the sweeping changes taking place with present AI. We'll be blind sided if super intelligent AI becomes a reality before we've figured out how to manage it. It will most certainly understand how to manage us, or eliminate us if it feels the need.
References
- Reel by Samuel Buteau:
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1513995956936496
- Official trailer for The AI Doc movie:
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